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Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events

Identifieur interne : 000260 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000259; suivant : 000261

Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events

Auteurs : Nathalie Verdière [France] ; Valentina Lanza [France] ; Rodolphe Charrier [France] ; Damienne Provitolo [France] ; Edwige Dubos-Paillard [France] ; Cyrille Bertelle [France] ; Moulay Aziz-Alaoui [France]

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RBID : Hal:halshs-01060875

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for modeling the human collective behaviors in the speci c scenario of a sudden catastrophe, this catastrophe can be natural (i.e. earthquake, tsunami) or technological (nuclear event). The novelty of our work is to propose a mathematical model taking into account di erent concurrent behaviors in such situation and to include the processes of transition from one behavior to the other during the event. Here, we focus more on the sequence of behaviors since our aim is to better apprehend and handle the collective reactions. In the literature, several models have been proposed for modeling crowd dynamics, both at microscopic (through agent-based simulation frameworks), and at macro-scopic level (via PDE equations). However, generally, the human reactions are classi ed in a single category, very often that of panic and the sequences of di fferent human behaviors are rarely considered, while in Human Sciences these concepts have already been addressed. Thus, in this multidisciplinary research included mathematicians, computer scientists and geographers, we take into account the psychological reactions of the population in situations of disasters, and we study their propagation mode. We propose a SIR-based model, where three types of collective reactions occur in catastrophe situations: re flex, panic and controlled behaviors. Moreover, we suppose that the interactions among these classes of population can be realized through imitation and emotional contagion processes. Finally, numerical simulations have been carried out to validate and compare our model with the experimental data available in the literature.

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<name sortKey="Aziz Alaoui, Moulay" sort="Aziz Alaoui, Moulay" uniqKey="Aziz Alaoui M" first="Moulay" last="Aziz-Alaoui">Moulay Aziz-Alaoui</name>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In this paper, we introduce a new approach for modeling the human collective behaviors in the speci c scenario of a sudden catastrophe, this catastrophe can be natural (i.e. earthquake, tsunami) or technological (nuclear event). The novelty of our work is to propose a mathematical model taking into account di erent concurrent behaviors in such situation and to include the processes of transition from one behavior to the other during the event. Here, we focus more on the sequence of behaviors since our aim is to better apprehend and handle the collective reactions. In the literature, several models have been proposed for modeling crowd dynamics, both at microscopic (through agent-based simulation frameworks), and at macro-scopic level (via PDE equations). However, generally, the human reactions are classi ed in a single category, very often that of panic and the sequences of di fferent human behaviors are rarely considered, while in Human Sciences these concepts have already been addressed. Thus, in this multidisciplinary research included mathematicians, computer scientists and geographers, we take into account the psychological reactions of the population in situations of disasters, and we study their propagation mode. We propose a SIR-based model, where three types of collective reactions occur in catastrophe situations: re flex, panic and controlled behaviors. Moreover, we suppose that the interactions among these classes of population can be realized through imitation and emotional contagion processes. Finally, numerical simulations have been carried out to validate and compare our model with the experimental data available in the literature.</div>
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